All the scenarios for Mitsotakis
What they fear and where they are betting at the Maximos Mansion
– As the dream of re-election fades and the questioning that could lead to the downfall intensifies.
The country’s political system continues to move in uncharted waters, while polls constitute a “photograph of the moment,” yet, they are unable to make a reliable prediction in… the long run. The entry into the political arena of two new parties, the ELAS of Al. Tsipras and the Hope for Democracy of M. Karystianou, caused strong turbulence, but the dust they raised has not yet settled. It is estimated that by the beginning of autumn, a clearer picture regarding the balances in the political scene will have been formed. Until then, barring any surprises, Ant. Samaras will have announced the founding of a new party, so a new cycle of turbulence should be expected, this time in the “right-wing apartment building.” How serious the cracks that will be caused in the Maximos Mansion will be, will judge to a certain extent the result of the elections, and perhaps it will set in motion political developments.
Contrary to what government officials support – publicly, at least – the road to the elections will not be strewn with roses for New Democracy. On the contrary, it will have thorns and many potholes. Kyr. Mitsotakis and some top ministers may insist optimistically on the narrative of self-reliance as the one-way street for political stability, however, the prospects are anything but auspicious and the ballot boxes may hide many, unpleasant, surprises for the governmental party. In essence, based on today’s data, achieving self-reliance moves on the limits of utopia. In the Prime Minister’s staff, they have invested in the good scenario: New Democracy to move in the elections at a percentage above 30%. Thus it will maintain political dominance and the initiative of movements, while it will go to second elections from an advantageous position. At this moment, it is moving far below the percentage of the European elections (28%), and the distance is growing steadily.
That is exactly where the bad scenario for the governmental party and of course for Kyr. Mitsotakis begins. New Democracy to gather a percentage in the order of 25% – 28%. Such a thing will be equivalent to a political defeat, regardless of the fact that the Maximos Mansion will speak of a third consecutive electoral victory. The assessment of political analysts is that that is exactly where the effort to question and dismantle Kyr. Mitsotakis will begin. Because even if New Democracy has prevailed in one more electoral contest, nevertheless, the percentage it will have gathered will not leave room for optimism for the future. Under this prism, it is very likely that a question of leadership change and renewal will be raised by certain members. In any case, change on the move is not the safest option, as it is very likely that the country will be led to new elections a month later. It is very likely that there will be voices within New Democracy of the type “we will do better with another leader,” however, such an option has a very high risk.
There is, however, also a third scenario, catastrophic for Kyr. Mitsotakis, and it has to do with the possibility that New Democracy will fall below 25% in the elections. In this case, it will automatically lose the seat bonus that the electoral law provides for the first party and sets as a limit 25%. At the same time, it will lose the initiative of political movements and the way will open for the formation of a government without the participation of New Democracy. The developments will be rapid. The procedures for the change of leadership will move at very fast paces and the candidates for the successor of Kyr. Mitsotakis will rush to take their position at the starting line. The latter, indeed, will be left with the dream of… a third prime ministerial term.
